The latest Times/Siena College poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a near deadlock across key battleground states as the election nears. In Nevada, Harris leads with 49% support to Trump’s 46%. North Carolina also leans toward Harris at 48% to Trump’s 46%, and Wisconsin shows a similar narrow edge, with Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%.
Trump, however, has gained ground in Pennsylvania, where the race is now tied at 48% each. He also holds a 49% to 45% lead in Arizona. The polling averages across these states are within the margin of error, indicating a fiercely competitive race where neither candidate has a definitive advantage.
Harris has seen a late surge among undecided voters, winning 55% of recent deciders compared to Trump’s 44%. Meanwhile, early voting is bolstering her numbers; 40% of respondents have already voted, with Harris leading among them by eight percentage points. Conversely, Trump leads among those who plan to vote on Election Day.
The economy remains the top priority for voters, but other issues are rising in importance in specific states. In Wisconsin, abortion has become nearly as significant as economic concerns. In Arizona, immigration ranks as a critical issue and seems to be aiding Trump’s lead.
In the Senate races, Democratic incumbents face tighter contests. Pennsylvania’s Senator Bob Casey now leads by five points, down from nine in September, while Wisconsin’s Senator Tammy Baldwin’s lead has shrunk to four points. In Michigan, the Senate race between Democrat Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers is neck and neck. Meanwhile, in Arizona, Democrat Ruben Gallego holds a five-point lead over Republican Kari Lake.
With both candidates having multiple paths to reach the crucial 270 electoral votes, small shifts in voter turnout or polling margins could decide the outcome, making this one of the closest races in recent history.
