The final New York Times/Siena College poll ahead of the 2024 presidential election reveals a statistical tie between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with both candidates receiving 48% of the popular vote. The survey, conducted from Oct. 20 to Oct. 23, surveyed 2,516 likely voters and has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.
Key issues for voters include the economy, abortion, and immigration. Trump leads slightly on economic issues (52% to 45%) while Harris holds a lead on abortion (55% to 40%). Both candidates are largely supported by voters who are certain of their decision, with only a small percentage still undecided.
This poll marks a narrowing of the gap from earlier in October, when Harris held a slight lead, suggesting that the race has tightened in the final stretch. Around 61% of respondents believe the U.S. is on the wrong track, an important sentiment that could influence the final outcome. Both candidates have spent considerable time and resources campaigning across battleground states, but despite two attempts on Trump’s life and high-profile debates, the race remains incredibly close.
With undecided voters and narrow margins, this tight race will come down to turnout on Election Day.
