Updates on the Ukrainian Incursion into The Russian Border Region of Kursk

Experts believe that the goal of the Ukrainian operation is to create confusion and destabilize Russia, as well as to force negotiations with Russia on moderate terms.

The Kursk region is weak in defense and border protection because it is far from the frontlines in southern and eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, Kursk is located in northeastern Ukraine (western Russia), with the city of Kursk—home to half a million people—lying 500 kilometers west of Moscow.

The Ukrainian military operation took everyone by surprise, especially the Russian military leadership. Initially, Russian authorities claimed they had thwarted the Ukrainian intervention, but later statements indicated that Russian forces were pushing back Ukrainian troops. Eventually, it became clear that military operations were occurring inside Russian territory, more than 10 kilometers from the border.

Western countries have openly begun to support Ukraine’s use of all the Western weapons at their disposal.

Field Developments:

The Russians expected the Ukrainian forces to number around 1,000 troops, but military experts say their numbers are in the thousands, equipped with all types of weapons.

As of yesterday, August 9th, Ukrainian forces were advancing deep into Russian territory, reportedly reaching more than 25 kilometers in some areas, with a width of about 10 kilometers. Unconfirmed military sources claim that Ukrainian forces are now 50 kilometers from the city of Kursk itself.

Today, the Ukrainian advance has finally halted, and media sources report that Ukrainian forces are fortifying their positions and holding their ground.

There is significant embarrassment for Russian forces in striking Ukrainian troops, as they are now positioned in Russian villages and towns, where not all residents have been evacuated (3,000 people have been evacuated so far, and President Putin has announced a payment of 10,000 rubles—about 100 euros—for each person).

The Russian military command has brought in forces from the eastern and southern fronts in Ukraine, as well as Wagner forces from Africa and Chechen forces to the Kursk region. Reports indicate that a group of Chechens from the “Akhmat-Sila” brigade, who were stationed at the border, fled to Kursk. Their commander, General Apti Alaudinov, stated that the Ministry of Defense did not assist them.

A state of emergency and anti-terrorism law have been declared in three Russian regions: Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk, all of which are border areas with Ukraine.

The Ukrainian military, political, and media leadership has been silent, providing no information about their military operation.

The Russian military announced that Ukrainian losses since the fighting began on the Kursk front have amounted to around 1,120 soldiers and 140 armored vehicles, including 22 tanks.

A video circulated even among pro-Russian war correspondents showing a Russian military convoy of 14 vehicles carrying soldiers being destroyed by Ukrainian HIMARS missiles, with casualties estimated between 120 and 500 people.

There are conflicting reports about whether Ukrainian forces have taken control of the town of Sudzha, where the Russian gas transit station to Europe is located.

There have been reports of a large number of Russian security personnel surrendering and being arrested in the Kursk region.

The Russian president met twice with the Russian Security Council, describing the Ukrainian operation as a large-scale provocation.

The regional emergency ministry in Lipetsk reported that a fire broke out at a military airport where fighter jets, including MiG-29s and Su-34s, are stationed. Lipetsk Governor Igor Artamonov said unspecified electrical infrastructure was damaged, and nine people were injured in the attack.

Igor Kurbunkov, an official in Russia’s Kursk region, stated on Telegram on Friday that fighting is ongoing “dozens of kilometers” from the town of Kurchatov in southern Russia, where the Kursk nuclear plant is located.

Acting Governor of Kursk, Alexei Smirnov, said on Telegram: “The operational situation in the Kursk region remains difficult.” He added that social services and civil organizations are assisting people forced to flee their homes due to the fighting. However, numerous videos have surfaced showing Russian women and citizens pleading with President Putin for help in evacuating.

Russia has lodged complaints with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN Security Council, human rights organizations, and the International Federation of Journalists regarding Ukrainian military actions. A prominent Russian war correspondent, Yevgeny Poddubny, was severely injured in his car by a Ukrainian drone in the Kursk region.

A senior advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that attacks on the border region would make Russia “start to realize that the war is slowly creeping into Russian territory.” Mykhailo Podolyak also suggested that the operation would improve Kyiv’s position in any negotiations with Moscow.

Neighboring countries have weighed in as well, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Ukrainian air forces of violating previous agreements and breaching Belarusian airspace, and thus ordered comprehensive readiness for Belarusian forces.