Washington – An American report asserts that Washington must come to terms with the reality that the entire region is normalizing relations with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The current policy of regime change in Damascus has failed, and what is now required of the American administration is to broker a deal between the Kurds and Assad.
The report from the Quincy Institute stated that UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which calls for a democratic transition in Syria to transfer power to the Syrian opposition, has no chance of success. Similarly, efforts to distance Syria from Iran are also unlikely to succeed.
The report argued that there is no longer any logic in the efforts to establish a semi-autonomous Kurdish entity in northeastern Syria, efforts that face opposition from all stronger neighbors, particularly Turkey. It added that each of these three policies—regime change, pushing back Iran, and maintaining a Kurdish-run statelet in Syria—depends on the success of regime change in Damascus.
Assad relies on the Kurds to balance the Arab tribes in the region and to control northeastern areas fully, ensuring that neither al-Qaeda nor ISIS returns.
The initial motivation behind deploying U.S. forces in eastern Syria was to combat ISIS, but the new, undeclared policy now aims to “push back” Iran by closing the critical link in the “resistance axis” chain represented by Syria.
With the election of Pashinyan, who has indicated his openness to the West and desire to reconnect with the United States regarding nuclear performance and sanctions, Washington must meet him halfway.
The report also touched on Turkey’s previous role in facilitating the influx of jihadists and weapons from around the world to Syria. It noted the unintended consequences of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s support for Islamist fighters, as waves of refugees crossed the border into Turkey, fleeing the Syrian war. This has led to societal tensions exacerbated by the presence of 3.7 million Syrian refugees in the country. Despite receiving over $11 billion in foreign aid for refugees, Erdogan recently decided that the time had come for their departure.
Erdogan considers the current U.S.-maintained status quo in northeastern Syria, which includes the establishment of a Kurdish autonomous region, to be unacceptable. This is evidenced by his military operations “Euphrates Shield” and “Peace Spring,” which severed the connection between the three Kurdish areas of Afrin, Kobani, and Jazira.
After 12 years of supporting efforts to overthrow Assad, Erdogan has realized that Assad is here to stay and prefers his presence on the southern border over an independent Kurdish enclave. Hence, he invited Assad to visit Istanbul, sought Russian mediation, and emphasized the potential for normalization between the two countries.
Conversely, Assad demands an initial Turkish commitment to withdraw its forces from Syrian territory. He is open to meeting with Erdogan and is keen on reasserting Syrian sovereignty over areas lost to rebel factions and foreign armies. Reviving trade with Turkey would also provide a desperately needed lifeline for Syria’s beleaguered economy.
Assad is also keen to have an ally in the imminent confrontation with U.S.-backed Kurds in northeastern Syria. He seeks to leverage the threat of a Turkish invasion of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) territories to negotiate an agreement with the Kurds. Assad has made it clear that he will not allow the Kurds to retain their army, which the Kurds will not accept as long as U.S. forces remain in northeastern Syria.
The report emphasized that Washington cannot keep its troops in Syria indefinitely, recalling that it had previously informed the Kurds it would not help them establish an independent state. With a new American administration taking power in 2025, the time has come for U.S. troops to withdraw from Syria.
It is in Washington’s interest that displaced people flee Turkey on perilous rubber boat journeys to Europe, creating a second migrant crisis and further empowering Europe’s far-right.
As the war in Gaza approaches its first anniversary, U.S. policy and credibility in the Middle East are deteriorating significantly, while Turkish anger toward the U.S. has been mounting since it began arming the Kurds in late 2014.
The Quincy Institute noted that the U.S. has an opportunity to correct its sanctions policy and use it to facilitate a suitable agreement between the SDF and the Syrian government. In such a deal, the Kurds would retain a limited degree of autonomy in exchange for the Syrian government regaining sovereignty over the region.
Assad has always relied on the Kurds to balance Arab tribes in the region, needing them to fully control northeastern areas and ensure that neither al-Qaeda nor ISIS returns.
The report concluded that a deal between the Kurds and Damascus is possible, and the U.S. could use its influence to ensure it is the best possible deal. It also recalled the 1998 Adana Agreement between Syria and Turkey, which was facilitated by the U.S. and contributed to the only warm and stable period in Turkish-Syrian relations over the past century.
The report questioned whether it is in Washington’s interest for some of the 3.7 million Syrian refugees in Turkey to return to Syria with economic support and aid funds, or for them to flee on risky rubber boat journeys to Europe, creating a second migrant crisis and further empowering Europe’s far-right.
Easing sanctions in an agreement with the Syrian government would help secure Kurdish rights and stimulate the economy enough to encourage some Syrian refugees to return and prevent more Syrians from leaving.
The report urged the U.S. not to resist the will of its Arab and Turkish allies seeking to normalize relations with Damascus and repatriate Syrians, noting that many European allies are also keen to resume diplomatic relations with Damascus and lift sanctions that have primarily harmed civilians rather than the regime. European ministers have called for a policy shift to create “a reality where the population has the will and interest to stay in Syria and return to it.”
Lifting sanctions would help the Syrian economy grow again and provide hope for a brighter future for the 90 percent of Syrians living in poverty.
If the U.S. continues to thwart the normalization efforts of its closest allies, it risks being expelled from the region. Erdogan’s efforts to revive his previous friendship with Assad are driven by their mutual desire to see U.S. forces withdraw from northeastern Syria.
The report concluded that resisting these efforts will only harm the U.S. and its Gulf and European allies. A U.S. withdrawal from Syria would help rejuvenate the Syrian economy, reduce tensions with key regional allies, and alleviate the refugee burden on Europe.
Source: Middle East Online
